Normally, our beat here is technical analysis. We love charts and make no bones about it. We’ve looked at so many of them that we see patterns that weren’t evident at first glance. Sometimes those patterns result in solid trade setups, and other times they morph into something else. But today, we’re going to look at a few other factors that we believe will propel copper to new highs in the coming years.

Global demand for copper is set to rise substantially over the remainder of this decade. EVs, renewable energy systems, power stations, data centers, and even reconstruction efforts in the Middle East are all going to require vast amounts of copper. Here’s the kicker, though: copper production is struggling just to stay flat, much less keep up with growing demand. This is due to a series of unfortunate accidents affecting production.

In just the past five months, there have been three major accidents that caused disruptions to production. Last month, there was nothing short of a disaster at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia. This accident was unprecedented in scale and impact. Grasberg is the world’s second-largest copper mine after Escondida in Chile.

On September 8, an 800,000-ton mud rush erupted into the mine, killing seven. It traveled through the mine, blocking multiple access routes and halting production with FCX declaring force majeure. FCX’s best guess is that Grasberg won’t return to its pre-accident operating rates until 2027.

In addition to that, a catastrophic rock blast back in July at Codelco’s El Teniente mine claimed six lives and brought operations to a standstill. The blast occurred deep within the underground network. The accident created significant disruption to Codelco’s production capability, with impacts extending far beyond initial assessments. What was first thought to be a temporary setback has evolved into a longer-term production constraint that will affect copper markets well into 2026.

And shortly before that, a seismic event in May caused flooding and led to structural problems in the eastern section of the Kamba-Kaukola copper mine in the DRC, forcing a temporary shutdown. The event continues to impact production and has forced the operator, Ivanhoe Mines, to withdraw its 2026 production guidance.

Copper mines take time to bring online. There is also political resistance in much of the world to the environmental impacts of copper mining, which can slow the development of new projects. Due to the constraints on supply, we think that demand for copper will far outweigh supply in the coming years. To combat the supply/demand imbalance, the market will do its job of dampening demand. How? By raising the price… a lot. If we throw in some tariffs, things could really get out of hand. That already happened once this year before Trump walked back the copper tariffs he had imposed.

In price terms, copper will probably be one of the bigger winners in the commodity world over the next few years.